THE CORE OF THE YEMENI CRISIS IS THE SAUDI OIL
Emerged a month ago and aggravated the Yemeni crisis could become a worldwide problem, because it is increasing its impact on the major geopolitical processes and changing the format of involvement of the superpowers. It is directly linked to the new processes of redistribution of the international oil market and, in this context, the old allies gradually find themselves on opposite sides of dividing lines.
US sanctions against Russia led to the fact that Saudi Arabia has increased its exports of “black gold” and thus world oil prices fell sharply. However, in late 2014 Washington realized that this policy primarily affects the North American economy, making local businesses uncompetitive and leading to their bankruptcy.
The economic situation of the United States forces the Obama administration to change the geopolitical vectors in the Middle East and alleviate some of the pressure on Tehran. It is no coincidence that immediately after the aggravation of the civil war in Yemen in Lausanne between the “six” (Russia, Germany, France, USA, China and the UK) and Iran an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program was reached.
With this step, Washington is trying to make it clear to Riyadh that if it will not make concessions in the oil sector, the situation in the Middle East can change dramatically not in favor of the Saudi monarchy.
Neutral position of the White House in connection with the lifting of the ban on Russian missile sale to Iran of S-300 stations caused concern in Tel Aviv and made more reconcile relations with Riyadh. But Tehran has demanded that OPEC reduces oil export for 5%.
It is clear that this clash of “Titans” in the global market of “black gold” will lead to serious military-political developments.
In this new large-scale international crisis Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Pakistan and Sudan are involved, and the problem can turn into a serious clash between Sunnis and Shiites.
In terms of the Yemeni crisis Iran – US and Israel -Russia relations converge. Tel Aviv is ready to tolerate the sale of Russian stations to Tehran, realizing that Moscow is trying to stop this Iranian-American rapprochement that will fundamentally change the situation in the Syrian and Iranian fronts. It is clear that Moscow can tolerate strike a balance by Israel along the eastern shores of the Mediterranean, where, as a result of worsening of the crisis in the Islamic world, the situation may worsen in Lebanon.
So the fate of the new geopolitics of the region today is being solved in the Arabian Peninsula.
BAGRAT MOVSESYAN
Lieutenant
